NotGraphs’ Five Best Bets for the Home Run Derby


Tonight marks yet another installment of the Home Run Derby, a chance for baseball fans to marvel as the biggest hitters in the game flex their muscles while swinging for the fences. It’s also a chance for fans to flex their prediction muscles by putting a little money down on their pick to win the bash-fest. So, who should you pick? We here at NotGraphs have the answers. Here are our five best bets for the Home Run Derby.

5. Don’t bet on the Home Run Derby

You don’t really want to bet on the Home Run Derby. It may seem like a fun, harmless way to enjoy the event a little more, but it’s a silly thing and you shouldn’t risk your hard-earned money on it. Just watch the big bombs and have fun. Don’t sully it by making it real. Do you even know how to place a bet? Are you going to give your credit card info to one of those shady off-shore web sites? Do you have any idea how to find a bookie? As I yell at my dogs all the time, Leave It! Just walk away. You won’t wake up tomorrow wishing you’d bet money on the fucking Home Run Derby.

4. Save the money you were going to bet on the Home Run Derby.

Say you were going to put down a $50 bet. Take that cash, and put it your winter coat. Then, when winter comes around … BOOM! FREE FIFTY BUCKS! It won’t technically be free money, but you know what I mean. You’ll still feel like a winner, and you won’t have to had to demean yourself to the point of betting on an exhibition baseball event.

3. Giancarlo Stanton

Look, if you’re going to do it, pick the favorite. The payout is the worst, but Stanton should at least give you a chance at not losing your money. Don’t get cute and bet on Todd Frazier or some shit. If you’re bound and determined to risk real money on a fake thing, you might as well go chalk.


This is the web site to find your local Gamblers Anonymous Hotline. I know I was being cute and jokey before, but if you are seriously considering doing this, you may very well have a problem. This is obviously some sort of compulsion for you, and it’s probably best that you deal with it as soon as possible. Don’t end up being a disappointment to your friends and family. This is the first day of the rest of your life. Click. Call. Choose to be a better person.

1. Give me the money you were going to bet on the Home Run Derby.

My Twitter handle is in the byline below. Send me a DM. I’ll get you my PayPal info. I can’t say for sure what I’ll spend it on, but if you’re going to just give your money away, give it to someone who could use it. I promise I’ll spend it wisely on something like food for my family, my Internet bill, or anything else that isn’t gambling on the Home Run Derby. I’d really prefer you’d pick option 2,4, or 5, but if it’s just burning a hole in your pocket, give me your money.

There you go! Remember to turn to NotGraphs for all your gambling-advice needs. Good luck and good betting!


David G. Temple is the Managing Editor of TechGraphs and a contributor to FanGraphs, NotGraphs and The Hardball Times. He hosts the award-eligible podcast Stealing Home. Dayn Perry once called him a "Bible Made of Lasers." Follow him on Twitter @davidgtemple.

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8 years ago

Over-Under on how many “backs” before Chris Berman’s head explodes?

8 years ago
Reply to  Gabes

One. I gaurrantee it.

8 years ago

Can I bet on that? I love a guarantee!