Old News: Billy Beane vs. Steven Levitt

This is what’s known in the industry as a “hilarious joke.”

Perhaps you’re the sort of person who knew this, but I, Carson Cistulli, am not.

In any case, some Paul DePodesta-related googling has verified it: apparently, back in April of 2005, Steven Levitt — progenitor of the Freakonomics brand — wrote a series of three posts for his blog in which he questioned the underlying causes of the A’s success under Billy Beane.

From one such post:

I am not necessarily implying that Billy Beane isn’t a good general manager who can stretch a small budget into a respectable record through good use of data, clever trades, etc. My only point is that there are a lot of people who are above average at their jobs, but they don’t become the subject of best-selling books. He had a book written about him because against all odds his team has been winning almost 100 games a year. And in the book, Michael Lewis sure makes it seem like the main reason is the clever stuff the A’s have done with analyzing hitting. And I am simply saying that is not the reason the A’s win.

In the spirit of data, the skeptics amongst you should tell me how many games the A’s need to win this year or over the next five years so that they would feel that Moneyball is validated. My own view is that if the A’s win 81 games a year for the next five years, it is more likely that Beane was lucky than good. If they win 97 a year, I’ll happily concede that Beane is the best. Even an average of 90 games
a year and I will acknowledge he is brilliant.

The A’s averaged just above 90 wins for the two seasons after Levitt’s statement, but then only 75 per year for the three seasons after that (i.e. through 2009). Here are the win totals, precisely: 88, 93, 76, 75, 75. Is that conclusive in either direction? I don’t know.

In a fourth post, from October of the same year, Levitt announced — with thinly veiled glee* — that Paul DePodesta had been fired from the Dodgers — partially confirming, for Levitt, that the Moneyball narrative was suspect.

*The post is called, perhaps a little too enthusiastically, “Unemployment-ball?”

I have only one real comment on Levitt’s claims — namely, I’m glad I wasn’t aware them at the time. Beane and Levitt are like the Santa Claus and Tooth Fairy of the baseballing world. Which, imagine if the Tooth Fairy started publicly questioning Santa’s ability to make lists and check them twice? That’s not fun for anybody.


Extry, Extry: John Henry Is Not in Your Tax Bracket

Though it contains little in the way of breaking news, Frank Dell’Apa’s Boston Globe article about Boston owner John Henry’s (pictured right) recent purchase of Liverpool FC does contain some comments from Jeff L’Hote of LFC International, a New York-based soccer consultancy firm.

For anyone who’s familiar with world football, none of L’Hote’s comments will shock — ta-da! soccer presents different economic challenges than baseball! — but it is interesting to think (if only for like 30 seconds) about what happens when a preternaturally talented sporting owner takes over a British football club.

From Dell’Apa’s article:

“I think one of the key learning curves is the difference between the European soccer model and US professional sport,” L’Hote said. “Henry said he can’t believe players have so much control here — a contract doesn’t mean as much in the Premier as Major League Baseball, for example.”

snip

[Spanish Striker Fernando] Torres could have plenty of temptations, bids from several countries, should Liverpool continue to struggle. Unlike baseball, there are competing European leagues that can offer options to dissatisfied stars. Contractual obligations only go so far. And few elite clubs are willing to impose salary caps.

For those of us who work on the side of labor, the notion that players have control — well, that’s hard to dislike. But for those in baseball’s nerderati, at least, there’d also be no little pleasure in seeing Henry exploit the frig out of whatever market inefficiencies exist in the Premiership.


Fantastical First Pitch: Arizona

This past weekend, I attended Ron Shandler’s First Pitch Arizona event for the first time. While ingesting my weight in hot dogs and adult sodas, the following things occurred to me, and not in consecutive order:

• What a lineup Ron Shandler puts together for this event. This year, the event featured such fantasy baseball luminaries as Lawr Michaels and Todd Zola from Mastersball/ CREATiVESPORTS, Jeff Erickson from RotoWire, Steve Moyer from Baseball Info Solutions, Steve Gardner from USA Today, Jason Grey and Eric Karabell from ESPN, John Sickels from Minor League Ball, Joe Sheehan from JoeSheehan.com, Mike Siano from MLB.com, Lenny Melnick from FantasyPros911, Tim Heaney and Nick Minnix from KFFL, as well as Kimbal Crossley, a professional scout. Fantasy veterans may find it hard not to get a little jelly-legged.

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Readings: “The Imagery of Major League Baseball”

Looks like someone’s as bad as he wanna be.

Carson Cistulli has recently “become literate.” Allow him to celebrate his new skill by sharing selections from his reading list.

Text: “Beyond the Game: The Imagery of Major League Baseball” from Journal of Sports & Recreation, Vol. 3, Issue 1, 2009. (Click here for full text.)
Author: Roy F. Fox, Professor, English Education, Univ. of Missouri
Pages: 11 (including pictures)
Pages Discussed Here: All

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Breaking Up the Band

They have their exits and their entrances / And one man in his time plays many parts

As reported by the New York Times and others, Joe Morgan and Jon Miller are losing their jobs as the ESPN “Sunday Night Baseball” telecast announcers.

The Times notes that both men are Hall of Famers. To me, Joe Morgan’s Hall of Fame plaque, which he (obviously) earned as a player, seems kind of… irrelevant? in this context. Anyway, much ink has been spilled already on the topic of Mr. Morgan’s broadcasting abilities. Let’s save some with which to extol Mr. Miller.

Jon Miller was inducted the Baseball Hall of Fame — as a broadcaster, no less — just this very year. He will continue doing TV and radio broadcasts for the Giants along with postseason radio for ESPN. According to his Wikipedia page he sometimes sprinkles broadcasts with quotations from Shakespeare, which I’ve never noticed, but it sounds very romantic, and according to this Edible San Francisco interview he’s really into kombucha, which is less romantic, but still cool.

On a personal note, Jon Miller’s radio call of the final out of the World Series was my last experience of the 2010 season, and it was a perfect way to close things out. Here’s hoping that ESPN rustles up a comparable pro for next year’s “Sunday Night Baseball.”


Rick VandenHurk Is Endearing Himself to You

Ballen!

Rick VandenHurk — along with Oriole teammates Adam Jones, Jeremy Guthrie, and some other players — is, in the giant Dutchman’s words, “on a tour of Europe to promote the game and help kids realize their dreams.”

The selfsame Dutchman is chronicling his adventures abroad via his blog, and the results are joy-ridden.

Some observations regarding VandenHurk and his prose stylings:
• He uses the words “Wauw,” “Bitterballen,” and “Appelflappen.”
• He capitalizes words in a way that, while not necessarily representative of “Standard English,” is nonetheless pleasing. For example, discussing Mariner prospect Greg Halman’s hometown, VandenHurk writes, “Haarlem is the City Were [sic] Gregory Grew up…” Also: “Baker and Gregory answered a lot of questions from the kids and helped them with their catching and Outfield Skills.”
• Seriously, though: “Bitterballen”? That’s gross, Rick VandenHurk.

H/T: Kate Wheeler of MASN


Extry, Extry: Australian Baseball League a Thing

File Under: Promotional Photgraphs, Slightly Awkward

The greatest challenge, as an American, to announcing the debut of the Australian Baseball League (ABL) is restraining oneself from making even the offhandedist of references to criminals, Vegemite, or 1986 box office smash-hit Crocodile Dundee. So, instead, I’ll mention all those things, slyly, while making a great show of how I’m totally above doing such a thing.

Sound like a plan? Good.

In any case, it’s not a lie: Australia has a professional baseball league now. The six ABL teams are as follows: the Adelaide Bite, Brisbane Bandits, Canberra Cavalry, Melbourne Aces, Perth Heat, and the Sydney Blue Sox.

The first game, played on November 6th, saw Sydney beat Canberra 1-0 in what must have been a rousing pitcher’s duel. (As an aside, note the unorthodox pitcher usage from Canberra manager, ex-MLBer Steve Schrenk: four pitchers, two innings each. That’s exciting in the nerdiest way.)

Americans will recognize some names, like Travis Blackley and Justin Huber. Former awesome Brewer Dave Nilsson (i.e. Ryan Doumit before Ryan Doumit) manages the Brisbane team. Brave reliever Peter Moylan will join Melbourne in January.

H/T: Ash Vasudevan


Jersey Edit: Toronto Blue Jays

For some reason, I find uniforms fascinating. Although I don’t think I quite qualify as a scholar of “The Obsessive Study of Athletic Aesthetics” like the fantastic Paul Lukas at Uni Watch, I do consider myself an interested observer and a student when it comes to jersey design, and I certainly find myself with strong opinions on jerseys in all sports, including baseball.

For example, the Toronto Blue Jays of the 1980s and 1990s had some classic uniforms and perhaps my favorite hat logo of all time.

Now, though, the Jays use this hat logo, which I’ve seen referred to as a “rat,” and much like the lettering on the jersey, the “J” on the logo is a bit heavy on metallic gray and beveling for my tastes. The current uniform design looks boring and, to me, corporate. Particularly disappointing is the use of black as a primary color on these alternates.

What to do? Going back to the old uniforms might work, but I feel like their time has passed. The lettering in particular on the jerseys from the 80s and early 90s belong in that time period. The Jays need a re-design that can work in 2010 while using the color scheme to the fullest. The Jays tried to use their blue in the late 90s, but the use of blinding red ruined these jerseys from 2003. However, I do think they had a few good things going.

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True Facts: Players and Their Charitable Acts

This is awkward for at least one of us.

Recently, Chicago White Sock and Constant Villain A.J. Pierzynski announced that he will be growing a mustache as part of a month-long fundraiser for prostate and testicular cancer awareness.

Sadly, not all players receive as much attention for their charitable acts. Here are a few true facts about lesser-known gestures from MLB players past and present.

1887: Phenomenal Smith changes name, for one day only, to “Pretty Good” Smith in effort to improve self-esteem of opponents.

1912: Ty Cobb resolves only to badly maim, but not actually kill, spectator.

1957: Mickey Mantle offers to become organ donor. Awkward silence follows.

1983: Ozzie Smith does a back flip. An angel gets its wings.

2010: Jeff Francoeur vows to participate in Swing Wildly for Hunger after disputing the value of the Walk.