One of these men is Cy Falkenberg in his prime. The other is the Lord.

Quick! Name the pitcher who posted the fifth greatest season (by fWAR) in modern baseball history! Hint: it was greater than any season ever posted by Cy Young, Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson, Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, or Randy Johnson, to name a few. Hint 2: it was said of this pitcher that he had “broken preconceived notions into a million scattered fragments.” Hint 3: the season was 1914. If you said “Cy Falkenberg,” then either a) you peeked at the leaderboard or b) you’re a dirty lying liar, because you couldn’t possibly have known such a preposterous thing.

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You’re all familiar by now with Kris Medlen. By just about any measure, he’s been the most dominant starter of the last couple of months of 2012. So dominant, in fact, that anxious Braves fans and skeptical Braves foes everywhere are terrified and smugly convinced, respectively, that Meds is too good to be true. Barring a total meltdown over his last few starts, this season is going to go in the books as an extraordinary one for the Braves’ unlikely hero. So the question now becomes: what should we expect from him in 2013?

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On this past Monday afternoon, within twenty-two seconds of each other, Robert J. Baumann and I submitted to this weblog some thoughts regarding Mike Trout. We did not coordinate; we did not synchronize; nor have I ever enjoyed the slightest contact with Mr. Baumann. A trivial coincidence, you may say. After all, Trout has hooked, if you’ll pardon the wordplay, our collective consciousness like no other. Perhaps the truly remarkable thing is that a full twenty-two seconds could pass without two baseball writers uncontrollably ejaculating their thoughts on Trout. I congratulate my colleagues on their continence. I also contrive to concoct as much consonance as one composition can conceivably contain.

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That one time, it was the balmy night of the eighteenth of June. Mike Trout stepped in against Matt Cain, in the bottom of the fourth inning, with one out and runners on second and third. The Angels were down by a run. There were many right things Mike Trout could have done; he had done many of them in the past, and he would go on to do many of them in the future. But on this night, at this moment, Mike Trout did the wrong thing. He dribbled a grounder back to the pitcher, and the lead runner was forced out at home. At that moment, Mike Trout made his team approximately thirteen percent less likely to win.

He also singled that night, and walked, and stole three bases, and scored a run. By the end of the night, balance had been restored: his team was better off with Trout than without Trout. But the damage was done. A fleeting indiscretion, perhaps. And yet its record would be etched in stone forever.

The first time I saw an upside-down map, I experienced a brief burst of denial, followed by the creeping itch of cognitive dissonance, gently giving way to a sort of mild, liberated euphoria. Damn right! I thought, smacking the nearest tabletop. Why SHOULD north have to be up?? And I’m pleased to report that I experienced a very similar series of sensations, earlier today, when I looked at the Major League Baseball standings and thought to myself: Why SHOULD wins have to be good?? 

The more I looked around this site and other similar sites, my vision newly unobscured by preconception, the more evidence I found for the insidious effects of win-ism. Win Shares! Win Expectancy! Wins Above Replacement! Win Probability Added! How much ink has been spilled on the Orioles, and their unexpected ability to win — and how little on the Astros, and their spectacular capacity to lose? How much on Stephen Strasburg’s benching, and its implications for a winning team’s continuing to win — and how little on Ricky Romero’s, and its implications for a losing team’s continuing to lose? In our blind haste to glorify the win, we’ve come to treat the loss — no less vital, no less pervasive, a part of baseball — with neglect, at best, and more often than not with open contempt. I’m here right now to rectify that. Regard, for the first time, to the best of my knowledge, Smith’s Universal Corrective Baseball Standings (through 9/10; projections from coolstandings.com):

Notes:

– The Astros are the story of the year. Houston set the bar high in 2011, finishing with baseball’s best record by a full seven games, but they’ve outdone themselves this year. Keep in mind that only one team in the past half-century (the ’03 Tigers) has posted a losing percentage better than .700. Currently projected at 110 losses, the ‘Stros have a shot at joining that short list if they keep up their scorching pace (they lit up the league to the tune of 46-8 in July and August). What are they doing so well? The better question is, what aren’t they doing well? They rank third in the majors in pitching Losses Above Replacement (LAR) at -5.6, but hitting is where they’ve seen the most improvement since last year: ranked second in batting LAR at -10.3, they’ve scored fewer runs than any team in baseball. Houston has continued to find playing time for pleasant surprises like Jordan Schafer (0.3 LAR) and Rhiner Cruz (0.6 LAR), demonstrating the organization’s commitment to losing, and losing now. The club is scuffling a bit of late, having dropped only five of their last nine. An area of concern is the performance of newly hired journeyman Edgar Gonzalez, who’s failed badly so far to meet his replacement-level expectations. In his two starts in September he’s posted an ERA of 1.74, standing out as a major weak spot in an otherwise outstanding rotation. The Astros will be counting on some regression out of Gonzalez as they chase history down the stretch.

– There’s plenty of drama in both leagues. However, the scenarios are very different in the AL and NL. On the junior circuit, there are essentially six teams battling for the five playoff spots; most of the suspense comes from those six teams jockeying for position, with two division races (East and Central) still up for grabs. In the NL, the Rockies and Astros have already wrapped up their divisions, while the Cubs have a lock on the first wild card. But the Marlins and Mets look to go down the wire for the East crown, and there are at least five teams in contention (within 5 games) for the last playoff spot.

– A lot has changed in the past month. Around this time in August, the Brewers and Phillies were in the thick of the NL wild-card race, the Jays sat comfortably atop the AL East, and the Pirates were nowhere near the conversation. Well, those first two teams have all but bumbled their way out of contention, going 10-19 and 9-19 respectively, and free-falling all the way to near .500. Philly’s starters have been awful of late, with the league’s worst FIP (3.19) over the last 30 days; after losing so effectively in the first half of the season, Cliff Lee has all but fallen off the map, posting a hideous K/BB of nearly 19 over the recent period. For Milwaukee, the culprit has been weak hitting, with a lineup ranking 26th out of 30 teams in LAR; Ryan Braun, currently in a .336/.402/.664 slump, needs to break out of it soon if the Crew is going to climb back into the race.

In the AL East, while Toronto has been playing decent baseball, the Red Sox have turned on the afterburners and seized the division on the strength of a 19-7 stretch. Boston’s rotation has been lights-out, with a league-best 6.50 ERA over the past month. Though the Sox will miss Josh Beckett, the return of Dice-K (8.25 ERA since Aug. 10) and the continued excellence of Felix Doubront (10.50) bode well for the stretch run.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the month has been the Pirates’ surge. Though their stats have been less than remarkable, they seem to keep coming up with a certain magic: they’ve lost 9 of 11 one-run games since August 1. After his disappointing debut, phenom Starling Marte has gone on a 6-41 tear, slugging .194 over the past month. James McDonald has been living up to his ace potential with a 5.30 FIP, while closer Joel Hanrahan’s control issues (8 walks in his last 9 innings) bode well for Pittsburgh’s final chapter.

But the hottest team in baseball has to be Cleveland, which is finally operating on all cylinders after scuffling so badly in early 2012. The Tribe are in the midst of a 21-6 streak, with their starting rotation posting a 6.14 ERA over that stretch while their hitters — led by breakout star Ezequiel Carrera (.194/.250/.269, -4.4 fielding runs saved) — have piled up a +1.4 LAR.

– The next few weeks will feature some crucial series. By losing three of four in Minnesota over the weekend, the charging Indians finally grabbed a share of the AL Central division lead. All eyes will be on Cleveland on September 18-20 for the last three contests between these teams. Meanwhile, the battle for the AL East will be coming to a head this weekend as the Red Sox visit Toronto for a make-or-break three-game series. After getting swept twice in a row at Fenway — in July, and just this past weekend — the Jays have to treat this as a can’t-win situation.

Don’t overlook the Pirates’ visit to Milwaukee next week, for the last set in the season series between two teams that are both on the playoff fringe but headed in opposite directions. And finally, the powerhouse Astros will be wrapping up their 2012 with a visit to Wrigley Field in early October. Although it’s unlikely to affect the playoff positioning of either team, this will be Houston’s stiffest test as it tries to put the cap on a potentially historic season. If nothing else, this series promises to showcase some scintillating baseball from two of the league’s best teams.

With just a few weeks remaining in the season, it’s about time to start taking stock of 2012’s biggest surprises and disappointments. Sure, there’s enough baseball left for a September callup to make a big impact, or for a major slump to derail a once-promising rookie campaign. But for the most part, players have made their statements and given us plenty of information to work with as we look ahead to next year. I’d like to begin this series with a close look at a prospect who, to say the least, has struggled to meet expectations. In fact, it’s safe to say that the opening of this player’s career has been nothing short of catastrophic.  It’ll come as no surprise to anyone who follows baseball that I’m referring to Nate Spears.

Spears, a “scrappy, David Eckstein-type” infielder with ten minor-league seasons under his belt, was a fifth-round pick by the Orioles back in ’03. He climbed as high as tenth in Baltimore’s prospect rankings, and after joining the Red Sox farm he quickly built some modest buzz, thanks in large part to a Double-A campaign featuring 20 home runs and reportedly stellar glovework. Though he hasn’t gotten near the attention of fellow prospects like Will Middlebrooks or Jose Iglesias, he always projected as a decent utility guy who might provide Boston with some valuable infield depth. All of which is to say that, while few were expecting Spears to light up the league, no one could have anticipated a failure of such epic — even historic — proportions. Now, while some might be reluctant to pigeonhole a guy based on what is admittedly a limited sample size (4 PA’s), we have enough data at our disposal to identify some very troubling patterns, both on offense and defense. Let’s lift the hood on Spears’ major league career thus far, and examine the mechanics of what has been arguably 2012’s biggest disappointment.

First, some harsh numbers: Nate Spears ranks dead last among 931 major-league position players in normalized wins above replacement, with a WAR/650 of a staggering -32.5. In other words, had the Sox played Spears all year, given a constant rate of production,  their record would currently sit at about 30-108. How, you ask, can a single player detract so much value from a team? Let’s look a little closer, starting with his performance at the plate. To put things mildly, Spears has had trouble getting on base consistently. His triple-slash line this season stands at .000/.000/.000, for a wRC+ of -100. The underlying problems are not hard to spot: with a strikeout rate of 75%, he’s not putting the ball in play a whole lot, and given a GB% of 100%, he’s not giving himself great chances when he does.

If we dig a little deeper and look at a few pitch type and plate-discipline metrics, we can start to piece together a picture of Spears’ hitting approach and better understand his lack of success. Thus far the league has treated him to a healthy diet of off-speed pitches — his FA% is only 40 — and Spears has yet to demonstrate that he can rise to the challenge. He’s been especially woeful against the curve, with a wCB of -0.4 against the four such pitches he’s encountered. If there’s a bright spot, it’s in how Spears has handled changeups. Though he’s only seen one so far, he did manage to put it in play, and his wCH/C of 6.10 would be good enough for third in the majors if Spears had enough PAs to qualify.

As for plate discipline, Spears is by no means a free swinger, as his Swing% of 46.7 lands him right in the middle of the pack among major league hitters. However, he’s swinging at too many pitches outside the zone (half of them, to be exact — even more than Josh Hamilton), and he’s made contact on exactly zero of them thus far. It comes as little surprise that Spears has struggled to draw walks, or a walk, this season, and as it stands there’s little incentive for pitchers to throw him strikes. Of course, there’s also little incentive for pitchers not to throw him strikes. As long as they’re not throwing changeups, which Nate Spears crushes, relatively speaking. Thanks to baseballheatmaps.com for the below heat map of Spears’ swings, which makes painfully vivid his weakness for the low outside ball in particular:

Spears’ issues at the plate are troubling enough, but he’s actually been just as much of a hindrance to the Sox on the field. Again, with only ten innings logged at three positions, the conclusions we can draw about his defense are arguably shaky — especially since Spears has yet to have a ball hit to him in left field, where he’s been stationed for four of those innings. But few major league clubs are likely to put up with a UZR/150 of -64 for very long, and that staggering figure is what Spears has posted in his five innings at third base, his primary position. (For comparison, that UZR is roughly five times as negative as that of Chris Johnson, the worst qualifying third baseman in the league.) As we pick apart his fielding, we quickly see that Spears’ range is the big issue. Of three balls hit to his zone (BIZ) at third, he’s made a play on zero of them, which leaves him with an RZR of .000 and a Defensive Runs Saved of -1. It doesn’t take a stats whiz to see that giving up a run, on average, every five innings is not a great way to hold down a job in a major league infield.

What does the future hold for Nate Spears? So far in his career, he hasn’t yet demonstrated the ability to hit the ball consistently, or at all, or to catch a ball in his glove consistently, or at all — significant red flags for any player at this level. Although it’s very difficult to extract positives from the numbers he’s put up to this point, the Sox may have gotten enough encouragement from his performance in the minors to warrant taking a slightly longer look. Based on what we’ve seen today, we might advise that Boston abandon its vision of Spears as a utility infielder and keep him in left field where he’ll be less of a liability on defense. We might also advise his hitting coaches to work with Spears on laying off pitches outside the zone, making good contact on strikes, and learning how to hit a fastball and a breaking ball. Given an unreasonably low BABIP of .000, we can certainly expect some positive regression next season, although a line drive percentage of 0.0% does not bode well for Spears’ future with the bat. Down the road, it’s possible that Spears might find a niche as a pinch-hitter against changeup-heavy right-handers, late in extra-inning games when no one else is available. He also hasn’t yet cost the Sox any value on the basepaths, so the occasional pinch-running gig might suit him. Whatever the case may be, this one-time promising prospect has his work cut out for him as he tries to carve out a living in the big leagues.

I wrote about the Baltimore Orioles on Monday. As it turns out, people have strong feelings about the Orioles. Most of the comments I got fell into one of these categories:

– The writer is an ass-clown, the Orioles are winning with hustle and poise and grit and spunk, and you “pencil neck baseball anylists” can take your WAR and shove it somewhere dark and humid.

– The writer is dead-on, the Orioles are winning with a dwindling stash of magic pixie dust, and you O’s fans better enjoy it now before your team CRASHES AND BURNS SUCKERS!!!1

– The writer is engaging in something called ‘satire,’ and evidently it worked.

For the record, I really like the Orioles. Clearly they are experiencing some luck, and they are also doing a lot of things well. I think they are an interesting outlier and I hope they continue to, um, outlie. It’s fun and interesting when our best knowledge turns out to be not perfect. Right?

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Note: This post was composed on Friday; the numbers have changed since then, and quite possibly for the worse.

I just wanted to take a minute to talk about this. I’ve spent some time on this website, looking at the many numbers. I’m no number-reading expert or anything, but I’m pretty sure that according to this website, the Baltimore Orioles are bad at baseball.

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Highly Important Note: This post was composed prior to the author’s reading of Mr. Baumann’s quite similarly motivated post of earlier today We coordinated this completely on purpose.

Those of you who, for whatever reason — novelty, I suppose — read our “stepchild” site Fangraphs, in addition to Notgraphs proper, will have noted the dramatic rollout this week of the new metric “Fielding Dependent Pitching.” I applaud the Fangraphs team for their effort and encourage them to keep at it, but here at Notgraphs we remain, to put it politely, a step ahead. Here I would like to announce our newest product, an advanced metric that brings us a massive step closer to the holy grail of fully understanding and predicting pitcher performance.

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Recently while gazing self-pleasuringly at the Pitch Type leaderboards, I had a spasm of analytical curiosity. (Don’t worry, these don’t last long.) Who sees the fastest fastballs? I asked myself. The simple answer is just a sort away: Jose Bautista, with an FBv of 92.5. There are no fewer than four Yankees in the top eight, led by Alex Rodriguez, who has faced heaters this year averaging 92.4 mph. But this isn’t so remarkable, I realized, as it might look at first. After all, A-Rod & Co. (as well as Joey Bats) happen to inhabit the hardest-throwing division in baseball, with power pitchers like David Price, Matt Moore, and Jon Lester padding those averages. What would this leaderboard look like if we somehow accounted for that?

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