An Overzealous Review of The Extra 2%: Chapter 3

Albert Lyu and Carson Cistulli are overzealously reviewing colleague Jonah Keri’s forthcoming book, The Extra 2%. Feel free to read parts one and two and three of the series that’s sweeping — if not the nation — then at least behind the TV where a lot of dust builds up.

In what follows, our intrepid duo attempts to understand the giant and real-life brain teaser otherwise known as original Devil Ray GM Chuck LaMar’s player personnel decisions. Neither Messrs. Cistulli nor Lyu — nor FanGraphs, generally — are responsible for injuries to the human spirit as a result of this discussion.

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Cistulli: Hey, Albert, pay attention and stop doing terrible things to that dog. The sound you hear is the people demanding that we continue our sprawling and genre-defining review of Jonah Keri’s book.

When we last left off, we were looking at the futility of the Rays’ early ownership — and, specifically, the misbehavior of Vincent Joseph Naimoli.

Chapter three introduces a second layer of futility to this very depressing and multi-layered cake: the life and times of Rays’ GM Chuck LaMar.

There are two ideas about which I got particularly excited in this chapter. First, is the expansion draft — just as a thing, I mean. It’s really the closest thing the majors have to a fantasy draft. If you’re so inclined, I’d like to examine this — the 1997 expansion draft, specifically, I mean.

The second idea is actually just a sentence. Writing about LaMar, Keri writes that his (i.e. LaMar’s) “claim to fame was being the Zelig of the National League.”

That line almost definitely appeals to me for no other reason than it’s a Woody Allen reference in this book about finance and baseball. It lets me trust the author more, certainly.

Albert: As a sort of recap for those who have short-term memory loss that cycles through 13- or 14-year periods, in the 1997 expansion draft, Tampa Bay (the team this book is about) and Arizona each chose 35 players from the other major league teams’ 40-man rosters and minor league systems. Each of the 28 teams, though, could protect 15 players and an additional three more after each round of the draft.

The expansion teams had several amateur draft restrictions, however, which meant that neither organization would be able to effectively produce homegrown ML talent until at least a few years later (or in this case, a chapter later — tune in to chapter four, coming to a NotGraphs post near you!). At the very least, TB and AZ wouldn’t be able to draw early first-round talent in their first few years, even though draft order is usually determined by previous seasonal standings.

One of LaMar’s first GM-ing moves turned into one of LaMar’s first (of several) GM-ing mistakes. The Astros unashamedly left Bobby Abreu unprotected. And this was 1997, when Abreu was the prototypical five-tool prospect. LaMar picked Abreu — then traded Abreu to the Phillies for shortstop Kevin Stocker. Stocker would go on to produce 2.9 WAR the rest of his career and Abreu would produce, uhh, 60.8 WAR.

If you don’t mind me producing a WAR graph, Carson, this is hilarious:

Carson: Yes, it appears as though that move didn’t work out particularly well. And a similar point might be made about the Dmitri Young-for-Mike Kelly trade, as well.

The 1997 expansion draft as a whole* — which saw the 57th and 58th picks post — demonstrates either (a) how difficult prospect mavening is even , (b) how poor these teams were at assessing talent, or (c) a combination of those two things.

*Re-printed at the end of this post.

Albert: We could certainly go through each and every one of LaMar’s errors and his faults and what-not, and analyze and FanGraphs-isize his transactions, but this is NotGraphs and this is undubitably the incorrect domain for something like that.

What I’m interested in hearing from you, though, Carson, is how unique you think it is for an author/journalist/writer like Jonah Keri to be able to get a former executive to willingly identify and elaborate on his previous moves and/or mistakes? Is Jonah some sort of high-level lovable Care Bear? Did Chuck LaMar not know that he was on-the-record and being interviewed? I’m pretty sure that I personally would not want my mistakes recorded, documented, and analyzed to the nth-degree in the (currently) eighth-best selling baseball book on Amazon.com.

Carson: First of all, we have to remember that Jonah’s a Canadian person and Canadians are, by their nature, non-threatening and polite. It’s very easy to reveal all manner of otherwise sensitive information to a Canadian person.

Consider some of these facts:

• Over 70% of all psychotherapists working in the US are actually Canadian — or, if not Canadian by birth, are at least Canadian-looking.
• Information about former CIA operative Valerie Plame Wilson was revealed at an airport bar when a friendly Canadian businessman asked Karl Rove, “So, whaddaya do for work?”
• Michael J. Fox

That’s what we in the industry refer to as a “cavalcade” of evidence, Albert.

In the case of LaMar, specifically, at the risk of sounding reasonable, his behavior actually appears to be remarkably healthy. I’ll suggest — anecdotally, at least — that the happiest people are those who recognize their own fallibility. LaMar appears merely to have a pretty decent sense of his failures.

Clearly Canadian.

Albert: One quote to note (note to quote?) from Jonah’s book is the following on page 60: “The Hit Show needed an extra “S” to properly illustrate its catastrophic effects on the Devil Rays.” The Hi(S)t Show (that’s where the “S” goes, right?) included such seasoned, well-trained, famous, and relatively ancient veterans in Vinny Castilla, Jose Canseco, Greg Vaughn, and Fred McGriff. The acquisitions underscore the Devil Rays’ early philosophy in their franchise history to throw heaps of dolla signz at veterans and well-known players to let’s-win-now-or-else at the cost of player development investment and draft prospect bonuses.

The current Rays as we now know it is almost a complete 180 of the early Devil Rays. The Hit Show relied on building a team around veterans with washed-up minor leaguers, while the current Rays are built around young stars and prospects, acquiring veterans to fill in the team’s needs and gaps.

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The 1997 Expansion Draft (courtesy of Baseball Reference):

OvPck	Tm			From Team
1	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Tony Saunders	LHP	Florida Marlins
2	Arizona Diamondbacks	Brian Anderson	LHP	Cleveland Indians
3	Arizona Diamondbacks	Jeff Suppan	RHP	Boston Red Sox
4	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Quinton McCracken	OF	Colorado Rockies
5	Arizona Diamondbacks	Gabe Alvarez	3B	San Diego Padres
6	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Bobby Abreu	OF	Houston Astros
7	Arizona Diamondbacks	Jorge Fabregas	C	Chicago White Sox
8	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Miguel Cairo	2B	Chicago Cubs
9	Arizona Diamondbacks	Karim Garcia	OF	Los Angeles Dodgers
10	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Rich Butler	OF	Toronto Blue Jays
11	Arizona Diamondbacks	Edwin Diaz	IF	Texas Rangers
12	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Bob Smith	3B	Atlanta Braves
13	Arizona Diamondbacks	Cory Lidle	RHP	New York Mets
14	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Jason Johnson	RHP	Pittsburgh Pirates
15	Arizona Diamondbacks	Joel Adamson	LHP	Milwaukee Brewers
16	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Dmitri Young	1B	Cincinnati Reds
17	Arizona Diamondbacks	Ben Ford	RHP	New York Yankees
18	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Esteban Yan	RHP	Baltimore Orioles
19	Arizona Diamondbacks	Yamil Benitez	OF	Kansas City Royals
20	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Mike Difelice	C	St. Louis Cardinals
21	Arizona Diamondbacks	Neil Weber	LHP	Montreal Expos
22	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Bubba Trammell	OF	Detroit Tigers
23	Arizona Diamondbacks	Jason Boyd	RHP	Philadelphia Phillies
24	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Andy Sheets	IF	Seattle Mariners
25	Arizona Diamondbacks	Brent Brede	OF	Minnesota Twins
26	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Dennis Springer	RHP	Anaheim Angels
27	Arizona Diamondbacks	Tony Batista	IF	Oakland Athletics
28	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Dan Carlson	RHP	San Francisco Giants
29	Arizona Diamondbacks	Tom Martin	LHP	Houston Astros
30	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Brian Boehringer	RHP	New York Yankees
31	Arizona Diamondbacks	Omar Daal	LHP	Toronto Blue Jays
32	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Mike Duvall	LHP	Florida Marlins
33	Arizona Diamondbacks	Scott Winchester	RHP	Cincinnati Reds
34	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	John LeRoy	RHP	Atlanta Braves
35	Arizona Diamondbacks	Clint Sodowsky	RHP	Pittsburgh Pirates
36	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Jim Mecir	RHP	Boston Red Sox
37	Arizona Diamondbacks	Danny Klassen	IF	Milwaukee Brewers
38	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Bryan Rekar	RHP	Colorado Rockies
39	Arizona Diamondbacks	Matt Drews	RHP	Detroit Tigers
40	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Rick Gorecki	RHP	Los Angeles Dodgers
41	Arizona Diamondbacks	Todd Erdos	RHP	San Diego Padres
42	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Ramon Tatis	LHP	Chicago Cubs
43	Arizona Diamondbacks	Chris Clemons	RHP	Chicago White Sox
44	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Kerry Robinson	OF	St. Louis Cardinals
45	Arizona Diamondbacks	David Dellucci	OF	Baltimore Orioles
46	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Steve Cox	1B	Oakland Athletics
47	Arizona Diamondbacks	Damian Miller	C	Minnesota Twins
48	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Albie Lopez	RHP	Cleveland Indians
49	Arizona Diamondbacks	Hector Carrasco	RHP	Kansas City Royals
50	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Jose Paniagua	RHP	Montreal Expos
51	Arizona Diamondbacks	Hanley Frias	SS	Texas Rangers
52	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Carlos Mendoza	OF	New York Mets
53	Arizona Diamondbacks	Bob Wolcott	RHP	Seattle Mariners
54	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Kevin Sefcik	LF	Philadelphia Phillies
55	Arizona Diamondbacks	Mike Bell	3B	Anaheim Angels
56	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Santos Hernandez	RHP	San Francisco Giants
57	Arizona Diamondbacks	Joe Randa	3B	Pittsburgh Pirates
58	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Randy Winn	OF	Florida Marlins
59	Arizona Diamondbacks	Jesus Martinez	LHP	Los Angeles Dodgers
60	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Terrell Wade	LHP	Atlanta Braves
61	Arizona Diamondbacks	Russ Springer	RHP	Houston Astros
62	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Aaron Ledesma	IF	Baltimore Orioles
63	Arizona Diamondbacks	Bryan Corey	RHP	Detroit Tigers
64	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Brooks Kieschnick	OF	Chicago Cubs
65	Arizona Diamondbacks	Kelly Stinnett	C	Milwaukee Brewers
66	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Luke Wilcox	OF	New York Yankees
67	Arizona Diamondbacks	Chuck McElroy	LHP	Chicago White Sox
68	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Herbert Perry	IF	Cleveland Indians
69	Arizona Diamondbacks	Marty Janzen	RHP	Toronto Blue Jays
70	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Vaughn Eshelman	LHP	Oakland Athletics