A Spiritual Exercise Concerning Zack Greinke

In his Discourses, noted Roman Stoic Epictetus proclaims that, to live a life free from anxiety, that each of us must become like a “spiritual athlete.” To that end, NotGraphs presents this exercise, with a view towards helping to tighten and tone the spirits of the readership.

Even the most cautious children can be eaten by she-bears

Notes: In his Thursday afternoon start against the Chicago Cubs, Zack Greinke struck out five of the 20 batters he faced while conceding only a single walk and zero home runs (box). Such a performance, extrapolated over nine innings, would typically see a pitcher allow only a single run. In this Thursday game, however, Greinke allowed eight runs over just 3.2 innings — or, about 20 runs for every nine innings. Of the 14 opposing batters who put the ball in play, nine (or about 64%) of them recorded hits — over twice as many as one would expect.

We know from DIPS theory that pitchers who excel at recording strikeouts while limiting walks and home runs — that these are the most effective pitchers. Further research shows that pitchers with high strikeout rates — like Greinke both generally and in Thursday’s game — are actually likely to concede fewer hits on balls in play. Indeed, there are more reasons to assume that Greinke was the victim of chance/randomness than poor pitching.

Exercise: While DIPS theory is a familiar concept to analytically minded baseball enthusiasts, it actually has a considerably longer history in ethical philosophy.

Here, for example, is an excerpt from Seneca’s (4 BC – 65 AD) Epistle No. 14:

“What then? Can one who follows out this Plan be safe in any case?” I cannot guarantee you this any more than I can guarantee good health in the case of a man who observes moderation; although, as a matter of fact, good health results from such moderation. Sometimes a vessel perishes in harbour; but what do you think happens on the open sea? And how much more beset with danger that man would be, who even in his leisure is not secure, if he were busily working at many things! Innocent persons sometimes perish; who would deny that? But the guilty perish more frequently. A soldier’s skill is not at fault if he receives the death-blow through his armour. And finally, the wise man regards the reason for all his actions, but not the results. The beginning is in our own power; fortune decides the issue, but I do not allow her to pass sentence upon myself. You may say: “But she can inflict a measure of suffering and of trouble.” The highwayman does not pass sentence when he slays.

Just as it is best to consider Greinke’s start in light of his performance and not in light of the game’s result, so, too, should the spiritual athlete concern him- or herself only with those matters within his or her control, and allow results to sort themselves out.

“But I want to protect myself from all failure and all harm,” perhaps one says. Indeed, such a thing is impossible — as both Seneca and the image/caption at the top of this post proves without exception.